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Japan
Wood Products Prices
Dollar
Exchange Rates of 15th Feb. 2008
Japan
Yen 107.98
Reports
From Japan
Sumitomo GM discusses uncertain wood products market in 2008
The Japan Lumber Journal discussed the prospects for the
wood products market for 2008 with the General Manager
of the Wood Products Trading Division of Sumitomo
Forestry Co. Ltd, Mr. Akira Sekimoto. On housing starts,
Mr. Sekimoto said the company estimates that new
housing starts will be around 1.2 million units in 2008, just
higher than 2007 levels. Although he noted that housing
starts had been adversely affected by the implementation
of the revised Building Standard Laws in July 2007, he
expected housing starts to recover more than 10% in 2008.
Nevertheless, he expected weak housing starts to continue
from January until March 2008.
Mr. Sekimoto said that three major factors had contributed
to problematic log imports in 2007: an increase in Russian
export duties on logs, freight rate increases and problems
of Southsea log transportation. He noted that these
problems would continue to impact log imports in 2008.
Regarding the difficulties experienced with shipments
from Malaysia under the Southsea Lumber Transport
Agreement (NFA, see TTM: 13:2), Sekimoto was
concerned that if the problem were prolonged, transport
capacity for Sarawak logs in 2008 would nosedive.
Sekimoto discussed the upswing in arrivals of wood
products since autumn 2007, explaining that port
inventories had returned to normal levels. He said that for
Chinese products, import levels of furnishing laminated
wood, glulam, poplar plywood, laminated veneer lumber
and others would not change much in 2008. However, he
said that due to tax increases imposed by China and rising
raw material prices, China was looking like a less
attractive production base compared to previous years and
that Japan should reconsider its ‘standing’ towards China.
Finally, he noted that rises in housing starts and lumber
demand levels would surely impact wood products imports
in 2008.
Recent timber imports conference forecasts lower demand for 2008
The Japan Foreign Timber General Supply and Demand
Liaison Conference, comprising a number of associations
for timber imports, met to announce its estimates for year
2008, said the Japan Lumber Journal. The Conference
expected demand for logs in 2008 to be 6.3% lower than
that for 2007. Sawn lumber estimates were expected to be
about 0.6% higher than in 2007. Many members of the
Conference expected the actual results to be impacted by
housing starts in 2008, and predicted the number of starts
to be between 1.1 and 1.15 million units. Details were also
provided on demand for Southsea logs used for plywood,
which was expected to be reduced by 6.9% from 2007
levels, and Southsea logs used for lumber, which was
expected to fall 6.8% from 2007 levels.
Tokyo wholesale market upbeat on strong January
results
Wholesalers in Tokyo were more upbeat about the
movement of goods in January, said the Japan Lumber
Journal. Traders have indicated that the ‘worst was
behind’ them since some prices had rebounded in the
markets. It was noted that business in the first quarter
would be difficult, but the market was expected to recover
later in 2008 (note: this is in contrast to forecasts stated in
story above). Prices for Southsea products such as seraya
planks and merkusi pine were falling, and movement of
Southsea products were rising due to increased demand for
public construction and shop related work. Although the
situation for plywood was poor in December 2007, its
supply and demand situation balance was reported to be
good. However, some items of thin and mid-thick products
were running short.
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