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North American Lumber Market

01-15th December 2006


Oregon asks for investigation of Chinese plywood
Hardwood plywood manufacturers in Oregon are crying foul when it comes to imports from China. Oregon¡¯s companies account for roughly 70% of the hardwood plywood manufactured in the USA (cherry, walnut and oak), mainly used as decorative plywood in cabinets, furniture and interior moldings.

Imports of hardwood plywood from China have spiked in recent years, rising from 442,000 m3 in 2003 to a projected 2.3 million m3 this year, according to figures collected from the US Department of Commerce. Over the same period, imports from Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Europe have been relatively flat, according to Steve Reister, chairman of the board of the Hardwood Plywood & Veneer Association, a trade group based in Reston, Virginia. Two US plywood mills were shuttered in the past six months in Virginia and Oregon mills could follow, according to Mr. Reister.

The local producers¡¯ main complaint is that Chinese manufacturers are not held to the same environmental and quality standards as products manufactured in the USA. Producers argue that the Chinese material does not meet formaldehyde standards and it is being used in secondary manufacture of cabinets and furniture. US producers also are concerned that Chinese imports are sold at artificially low prices allegedly due to subsidies from the Chinese
government, fraudulent labelling and illegally harvested logs. Senator Ron Wyden (Oregon) has written letters to the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Trade Representative and the US Department of Commerce, asking them to investigate alleged illegal and unfair
practices by Chinese competitors that threaten US hardwood plywood manufacturers.

IWPA responded that hardwood plywood products manufactured in China were legally imported into the USA and received the same scrutiny for classification under the HTS as all wood products entering the country. The US Customs and Border Protection Bureau has the
responsibility to refuse entry to any product improperly classified, according to IWPA.

Congress renews GSP and extends CNL waivers
The US Congress renewed the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for two years while maintaining Brazil¡¯s eligibility for wood products, IWPA informed. The renewal was part of a larger trade package.

Continuation of the competitive need limit waiver (CNL) for Indonesian plywood (HTS 4412.13.40) remains in effect for few more years. According to the law, to be signed by the President, a waiver in effect for five or more years can be revoked by the president beginning 1 July 2007. The waiver for plywood has been in effect since 2005, well short of the five-year time limit. However, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) was granted discretion to take away a CNL waiver, but it was unclear whether it would implement the new provision. The 8% duty on Brazilian softwood plywood (HTS 4412.19.40) is still applicable because imports exceeded the CNL.

US extends low tariffs for Andean nations
The US Congress extended a low-tariff regime for four Andean countries (Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia), giving them six months to secure permanent bilateral trade deals with the USA. The Bush administration had proposed a year-long extension of the Andean Trade
Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) which expired at the end of the month. The short ATPDEA extension was a compromise between opposing proposals from the two US chambers.

However, the leftwing presidents of Ecuador and Bolivia had indicated that they did not intend to pursue bilateral trade agreements with the USA. Evo Morales, the leftwing president of Bolivia, dismissed the six-month deadline saying that other South American countries were ready to
buy from Bolivia what it sold to the USA. Rafael Correa, the Ecuadorean left-winger who won last month¡¯s presidential elections, said the ATPDEA was not charity but ¡°compensation for the war on drugs¡± the countries were fighting on behalf of the USA.

US consumer spending on office furniture
This second article analyzes the US office furniture sector. Growth of pre-tax corporate profits in 2005 stood at 12.5% and is predicted to be a healthy 19-20% this year. However, with the expected slowdown of the US economy, corporate profit growth in 2007 would decline to about 5% according to Aktrin. This prediction is based on the assumption that both interest rates and the value of the dollar will remain low. Business investments progressed at a rate of 6.8% in 2005 and growth is likely to reach 7.5% this year and decline to 5.6% in 2007. Investment in machines and equipment (including office furniture) did better, advancing 8.9% in 2005 and an
expected 7.2% this year. This investment will probably fall to 5-6% in 2007.

Spurred by corporate profitability, the job market improved in 2004 and 2005. Employment growth advanced 1.8% in 2005 (up from 1.1% in 2004). However, Aktrin predicts a growth of only 1.2% in 2007. Expenditure on non-residential construction (including office space) was frail up to 2005, when it grew 1.1%.  However, non-residential construction will probably grow 8.1% this year and 4.6% in 2007.

Following several years of decline, positive growth of business outlays for office furniture resumed again in 2003. However, progress remained very shallow and did not reflect the overall pick-up in business investments. A noticeable improvement was witnessed last year when the
office furniture market advanced by 14%, reaching $38.5 billion (at end-user prices and including recycled furniture), thereby surpassing the previous peak value in 2000. Growth this year is estimated at approximately 10%, bringing the market size to a record value in excess of $40
billion. With lower corporate profits, slower employment growth and much of the pent-up demand for office furniture being satisfied, Aktrin predicts a lesser growth rate of about 6.2% for the office furniture market in 2007.

Abbreviations

LM        Loyale Merchant, a grade of log parcel  Cu.m         Cubic Metre
QS         Qualite Superieure    Koku         0.278 Cu.m or 120BF
CI          Choix Industriel                                                       FFR            French Franc
CE         Choix Economique                                                        SQ              Sawmill Quality
CS         Choix Supplimentaire      SSQ            Select Sawmill Quality
FOB      Free-on-Board     FAS            Sawnwood Grade First and
KD        Kiln Dry                               Second 
AD        Air Dry        WBP           Water and Boil Proof
Boule    A Log Sawn Through and Through MR              Moisture Resistant
              the boards from one log are bundled                      pc         per piece      
              together                      ea                each      
BB/CC  Grade B faced and Grade C backed MBF           1000 Board Feet          
              Plywood   MDF           Medium Density Fibreboard
BF         Board Foot F.CFA         CFA Franc        
Sq.Ft     Square Foot               Price has moved up or down

Source: ITTO'  Tropical Timber Market Report

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