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Report from
Europe
EU tropical wood imports remain slow in the third
quarter
The EU27 imported 1,171,600 tonnes of tropical wood
and wood furniture in the first nine months of 2025, 8%
more than the same period in 2024 when imports were at
an all-time low. Imports in the third quarter of this year
were 400,800 tonnes, 1% more than the previous quarter
and 12% more than the same quarter the previous year.
Import tonnage during the third quarter of this year was
still well below the long-term quarterly average of around
450,000 tonnes in the last decade (Chart 1a).
EU27 import value of tropical wood and wood furniture in
the first nine months of 2025 was US$2474 million, 8%
more than the same period in 2024. Import value in the
third quarter this year was US$811 million, 5% less than
the previous quarter and 6% more than in the same quarter
in 2024. In nominal US$ value terms (i.e. not accounting
for inflation), import value during the third quarter of 2025
was well above the pre-pandemic 2013-2019 quarterly
average of around US$750 million (Chart 1b).
EU forecast of continued slow economic growth
The European Commission’s Autumn 2025 Economic
Forecast published on 17 November shows continued slow
growth in the EU despite a challenging economic and
geopolitical environment.
Economic growth exceeded expectations in the first nine
months of the year, with real GDP growth outperforming
the annual expansion projected in spring. This better-than-
expected performance was initially due to a surge in
exports ahead of anticipated tariff increases, but
investment in equipment and intangible assets also
performed more strongly than expected — most notably in
Ireland. Data from the Commission surveys and
Purchasing Manager Indices in October suggest
continuing growth momentum in the coming quarters.
Altogether, the EC projects real GDP to grow by 1.4% in
the EU in 2025 and 2026, edging up to 1.5% in 2027.
Inflation is forecast to continue its decline in 2025, falling
to 2.1% in the euro area, and then hover around 2% over
the next two years.
The Joint Statement on a US-EU framework on an
agreement on reciprocal, fair and balanced trade, issued on
21 August 2025, establishes a headline tariff rate of 15%.
Compared to other major global players (e.g. China, India,
ASEAN countries), the EU enjoys lower trade-weighted
average tariff rates on exports to the US providing a
relative advantage for the EU economy.
However, this advantage is set in the context of modest
growth in export markets for goods and a strong euro.
Persistently high trade policy uncertainty continues to
burden economic activity in the EU, while the economic
impact of the current tariffs and non-tariff restrictions and
resulting supply chain disruptions might be greater than
expected.
Private consumption grew at a slightly slower pace than
anticipated during the first half of 2025. After declining
since late 2024, consumer confidence stabilised over the
summer, although it remains below its long-term average.
While real household disposable income continued to rise,
the saving rate remained relatively high and even
increased in the first quarter, thereby limiting consumption
growth.
Private consumption is now expected to support slow
growth, helped by a gradual decline in the saving rate.
However, public consumption growth is expected to lose
steam in the coming months, as growth in public wages
decelerates. Overall, the unemployment rate in the EU is
anticipated to edge down further from 5.9% in 2025 and
2026 to 5.8% in 2027.
In a striking reversal, the countries that suffered most
during the eurozone crisis over a decade ago - Portugal,
Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, and Spain - are set to outperform
countries such as Germany, Finland, and Austria that were
once seen as economic models.
The EU’s three largest economies - Germany, France, and
Italy - are set to experience weak growth over the coming
years. Once the engine of European growth, Germany is
set to expand by 0.2 percent in 2025 and 1.2 percent in
2026 and 2027.
Italy is estimated to grow at an even more sluggish pace -
0.4 percent in 2025 and 0.8 percent in 2026 and 2027 -
despite being the main beneficiary of the EU’s post-
COVID recovery program. This stands in contrast to the
strong economic growth in 2025 in Southern and Eastern
countries such as Malta (4 percent), Bulgaria (3 percent),
Lithuania (2.4 percent) and Croatia (3.2 percent).
Emerging momentum in the European construction
sector
Europe’s construction market has stabilized with signs of
emerging momentum in key economies. The recovery is
being fuelled by pent-up residential demand and
infrastructure investment. The medium-term outlook for
European construction is now positive, although a full
rebound remains contingent on economic stability.
These are key conclusions of a report by Bain &
Company, the global management consulting firm drawing
on its new Building Blocks Construction Indicator,
released 29 October.
The forecast upturn in the industry is expected to be
buoyed by the interest rate cuts made by the European
Central Bank in the past year, as these now trigger
increased spending on refurbishments by private
households, as well as higher capital investment by
commercial and industrial players.
Alongside, years of pent-up unmet demand for new
residential construction is also beginning to spark new
building activity, while public infrastructure growth is
boosted by the end of recent European election cycles,
according to Bain’s report.
With the worst of earlier, severe headwinds for most
European construction markets now past, after what Bain
described as a “perfect storm” for the industry in recent
years, its analysis reports that activity in markets including
the Netherlands, the Nordics, and likely the UK, is already
seeing a turning point. But Bain cautions that some
markets, including France and Germany, will see a more
subdued near-term recovery, and a slower path back to
growth, with this returning only during next year. Italy is
an outlier, expected to see activity fall further due to
phasing out of government incentive programs.
Europe’s office construction activity is set to lead non-
residential growth in selective segments and prime
locations despite the continuing shift to remote work,
supporting modest positive growth across 2025–2028.
Residential new construction is expected to become
among the main growth engines for European construction
into 2028.
Structural housing shortages – particularly in social
housing – combined with stabilizing economic conditions
are unlocking activity across much of Europe.
However European construction’s positive current outlook
and nascent recovery through to 2028 is also vulnerable to
potential disruption from sources of instability, such as a
return to heightened economic uncertainty, Bain cautions.
See: https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-
releases/20252/europes-construction-industry-is-turning-a-
corner-as-early-signs-of-recovery-point-to-strengthening-
medium-term-prospects--bain--company/
Vietnam, Indonesia and India driving recovery in EU
tropical wood furniture imports
The EU27 imported 237,500 tonnes of wood furniture
from tropical countries with a total value of US$1012
million in the first nine months of 2025. Import quantity
and value were up 9% and 11% respectively compared to
the same period in 2024.
In the first nine months of 2025, EU27 import value of
wood furniture increased from the three largest supply
countries: Vietnam (+16% to US$447.0 million),
Indonesia (+7% to US$256.6 million), and India (+8% to
US$210.6 million).
There were also large percentage gains in imports from
several smaller suppliers including Thailand (+67% to
US$17.8 million), the Philippines (+8% to US$6.7
million), and Mexico (+28% to US$3.3 million). However,
imports from Malaysia decreased 4% to US$66.1 million.
EU27 wood furniture imports from all other tropical
countries have been negligible this year (Chart 2).
EU27 imports of tropical sawnwood only just above
last year’s record low
The EU27 imported 540,800 cu.m of tropical sawnwood
with a total value of US$491.6 million in the first nine
months of 2025, respectively 3% and 1% more than the
same period in 2024.
Tropical sawnwood imports were down in the first nine
months of 2025 compared to the same period last year
from Cameroon (-12% to 179,100 cu.m), the Republic of
Congo (-12% to 45,900 cu.m), Malaysia (-8% to 43,000
cu.m), and Ecuador (-17% to 10,400 cu.m).
However, these declines were offset by rising imports
from Gabon (+21% to 95,900 cu.m), Brazil (+44% to
93,400 cu.m), Ghana (+8% to 12,800 cu.m), the
Democratic Republic of Congo (+25% to 6,000 cu.m),
Peru (+152% to 5,500 cu.m), Central African Republic
(+21% to 5,300 cu.m), and Indonesia (+23% to 5,200
cu.m) (Chart 3).
The EU27 imported 92,000 tonnes of tropical
mouldings/decking with a total value of US$157.8 million
in the first nine months of 2025, respectively 6% and 9%
less than the same period last year.
The decrease in imports was mainly due to a steep decline
from Brazil (-18% to 27,300 tonnes), and Peru (-62% to
3,800 tonnes). Imports were also down 6% from Bolivia to
3,900 tonnes. However, imports increased from Indonesia
(+16% to 37,300 tonnes), Gabon (+8% to 6,800 tonnes),
and Malaysia (+4% to 4,700 tonnes) (Chart 4).
Second quarter rise in EU27 imports of tropical logs
from CAR and Liberia
The EU27 imported 32,500 cu.m of tropical logs with a
total value of US$18.5 million in the first nine months of
2025, respectively 21% and 12% more than the same
period in 2024.
The rise in trade quantity was particularly driven by sharp
percentage increases from the Central African Republic
(+62% to 12,100 cu.m) and Liberia (+325% to 2,500
cu.m), concentrated in the second quarter of the year.
Imports from Cameroon were also up 8% to 4,500 cu.m,
gaining pace in the third quarter after a slow start to the
year.
However, log imports declined from both the Democratic
Republic of Congo (-28% to 3,800 cu.m) and the Republic
of Congo (-15% to 2,800 cu.m) in the first nine months of
2025, responding to tighter controls on log exports. EU27
log imports also fell from Paraguay, by 20% to 2,300
cu.m, but were stable from Guyana at 1000 cu.m during
the nine month period (Chart 5).
Signs of recovery in EU imports of tropical veneer and
plywood this year
The EU27 imported 183,900 cu.m of tropical veneer with
a total value of US$132.6 million in the first nine months
of 2025, respectively down 1% and up 6% compared to
the same period last year.
EU27 imports of tropical veneer decreased during the
nine month period from Gabon (-4% to 99,100 cu.m), the
Republic of Congo (-13% to 7,200 cu.m) and Ghana (-2%
to 5,100 cu.m).
However, imports increased from Côte d'Ivoire (+3% to
38,300 cu.m), Cameroon (+4% to 20,500 cu.m), the UK
(+7% to 6,800 cu.m), Indonesia (+26% to 2,900 cu.m),
and Vietnam (+353% to 1,300 cu.m) during the period
(Chart 6).
The EU27 imported 275,800 cu.m of tropical plywood
with a total value of US$178.9 million in the first nine
months of 2025, up 35% and 20% respectively compared
to the same period in 2024. Imports increased dramatically
during the nine-month period from Vietnam, by 258% to
69,700 cu.m, thereby overtaking Indonesia as the largest
single supplier of tropical plywood to the EU27.
Imports also increased, but at a slower rate, from
Indonesia (+17% to 64,800 cu.m), Brazil (+134% to
27,000 cu.m), Paraguay (+138% to 14,500 cu.m), Ghana
(+45% to 8,400 cu.m), and Malaysia (+17% to 6,200
cu.m).
However, these gains were partly offset in the first nine
months of 2025 by declining imports from Gabon (-1% to
48,000 cu.m), China (-53% to 11,500 cu.m), Morocco (-
14% to 12,000 cu.m), and the UK (-22% to 4,200 cu.m)
(Chart 7).
Definitive anti-dumping duties imposed on EU imports
of Chinese hardwood plywood
Recent trends in EU27 hardwood plywood imports have
been impacted by the EU’s anti-dumping investigation
against Chinese hardwood plywood which led to the
imposition of definitive anti-dumping duties on EU
imports of this commodity, effective 21 November 2025.
These measures are intended to protect EU producers from
unfair trade practices, as the EU alleges that Chinese
exporters were selling the product below production cost.
The duty imposed on one Chinese producer that
cooperated with the investigation was raised from a
provisional rate of 25.1% imposed on June 11, 2025, to
43.2%. For all other Chinese hardwood plywood
producers, the duty was raised from the provisional rate of
62.4% imposed in June to 86.8%.
These anti-dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood
have led to a switch in EU imports of hardwood plywood,
particularly a rise a trade with Vietnam which has
benefitted from a sharp increase in production and exports
to the EU this year.
See: https://pagedplywood.com/en/european-commission-
regulation-imposes-high-import-duties-on-chinese-hardwood-
plywood/
EU imports of tropical flooring products rise sharply
this year
The EU27 imported 26,600 tonnes of tropical wood
flooring with a total value of US$74.8 million in the first
nine months of 2025, up 110% and 126% respectively
compared to the same period in 2024.
Imports increased by 60% from Malaysia to 9,300 tonnes.
Imports of 7,600 tonnes from Vietnam were 152% more
than the same period last year.
EU imports of this commodity have also risen sharply in
percentage terms this year from Indonesia (+73% to 4,200
tonnes), and Thailand (+268% to 1,200 tonnes). Imports
from Cambodia, near zero in the first nine months of last
year, were 3500 tonnes in the same period this year (Chart
9).
EU27 import value of other joinery products from tropical
countries - mainly laminated window scantlings, kitchen
tops and wood doors – was US$166.7 million in the first
nine months of 2025, 9% more than the same period last
year. Import quantity was up 14% to 75,600 tonnes in the
same period.
Import values increased from Indonesia (+13% to
US$70.0 million), Malaysia (+3% to US$45.8 million),
Vietnam (+12% to US$16.0 million), the Republic of
Congo (+17% to US$11.5 million), Cameroon (+92% to
US$5.0 million), and the UK (+16% to US$4.3 million).
However, EU27 import value of joinery products made
from tropical wood was down 38% to US$1.8 million
from China (Chart 9).
EU close to agreement on additional twelve-month
delay to EUDR
After weeks of speculation and conflicting news around
another possible delay to the date of application of the EU
Deforestation Regulation, a clearer picture emerged
following a vote by the European Parliament on 26
November.
The Parliament voted 402 to 250 to delay and simplify the
EUDR, thereby taking a position very closely aligned to
that agreed by the EU Council on 19 November.
This means the European Parliament and Council can now
formally enter interinstitutional negotiations (“trilogues”)
to reach a final agreement. This follows the ordinary
legislative procedure, where the Commission proposes
legislative changes and the co-legislators jointly decide.
The mandates of both co-legislators now converge on
several key elements: a 12-month postponement for all
operators, a range of simplification measures designed to
reduce the bureaucratic burden within the EU, and a
requested review of the EUDR by April 2026 to assess
impacts and the need for further adjustments.
Some divergences remain - notably, the Parliament’s
proposal to exclude the printing sector from the scope of
the regulation. A 4th country risk category (‘zero risk’),
which was previously mentioned, is not under negotiations
and will not be a matter of discussions.
The timeline remains tight: once a provisional agreement
is reached, it must still be formally endorsed by both
institutions — the Parliament (expected around 15
December) and the Council (expected around 18
December).
Any amendments must be published in the Official Journal
of the European Union (OJEU) before 30 December for
the changes to enter into force as intended.
However, given the proximity of the two positions and the
Commission’s facilitating role, negotiations are expected
to be relatively smooth and to conclude within the planned
timeframe.
This makes it very likely that the 12-month delay to the
dates of application of EUDR will be confirmed for all
operators. This would mean that large and medium sized
operators would have to apply EUDR from 30 December
2026, while micro and small operators (with less than 50
employees and turnover not exceeding €10 million) would
be given an additional six months until 30 June 2027.
See: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-
releases/2025/11/19/deforestation-council-ready-to-start-talks-
with-parliament-on-a-targeted-revision-of-the-regulation/
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