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Report from
North America
US government cancels October jobs report - private
report suggests jobs lost in November
The government announced there will be no October
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report due to the
government shutdown. The Bureau will fold October data
into their November totals to be released late December.
With that source missing economists are looking to private
reports for data, especially the monthly ADP private sector
jobs report. The ADP report is a trusted source that the
Federal Reserve has used its data since 2018 to
supplement BLS reports.
ADP released its November data on 3 December which
paints a bleak picture for the US labour market,
particularly in some areas of the country.
According to ADP numbers, private employers cut 32,000
jobs in November with construction, manufacturing,
professional/business services and information services
leading the job losses. Construction lost 9,000 jobs and
manufacturing lost 18,000 jobs in the month.
The job losses were uneven by region. The Northeast and
South reported steep job losses while the Midwest and
West reported job gains.
“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers face
cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic
environment,” said ADP Chief Economist, Nela
Richardson. The report suggests small companies suffered
most.
See: https://mediacenter.adp.com/2025-12-03-ADP-National-
Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Shed-32,000-
Jobs-in-November-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-4
and
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/october-jobs-report-
canceled-and-november-release-delayed-bls-says/ar-
AA1QKOx5?ocid=BingNewsVerp
US consumer sentiment improves but remains
subdued
US consumers' mood improved slightly this month, with
worries about inflation easing but overall the picture
remains gloomy.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index,
released December 5, rose to 53.3 early this month from a
final reading of 51 in November. The index beat the
forecasted mark of 52 but confidence is down
considerably from a 71.7 rating at the beginning of the
year.
Consumers' evaluation of current economic conditions
slipped slightly, but their expectations for the future
brightened. Inflation dipped to 4.1% from 4.5% last month
to the lowest level since January when Trump returned to
the White House and began imposing sweeping tariffs on
imports. Economists warn that importers pay the tariffs
and then try to pass along the cost to their customers
through higher prices.
The US has reached a series of deals with major US
trading partners including the European Union and Japan
that brought his tariffs down from the punishingly high
levels threatened in the spring. Still, the average US tariff
rate has climbed from 2.4% in January to 16.8% last
month, the highest since 1935 according to calculations by
Yale University.
Joanne Hsu, who directs the Michigan economic surveys,
said: “The overall tenor of views is broadly somber as
consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices.″
See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-consumer-
sentiment-improved-this-month-but-remains-subdued-the-
university-of-michigan-reports/ar-
AA1RN9ku?ocid=BingNewsVerp
and
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
Residential furniture orders surged in September
New residential furniture orders rose 15% in September
compared to the previous month and were up 7%
compared to 2024's figure according to the November
issue of Furniture Insights.
Approximately two-thirds of participants in the survey
reported increases in September 2025 compared to a year
ago.
September domestic sales were up 6% compared to 2024
figures, with two-thirds of survey participants reporting
increases compared to the year prior. Shipments were also
up 3% compared to August although they remain down
1% for the year-to-date compared to 2024.
See: https://www.smith-leonard.com/2025/12/05/november-
2025-furniture-insights/
and
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/furniture/september-
residential-furniture-orders-rise-smith-leonard
Cabinet sales fall slightly in October
US cabinet manufacturers reported overall sales continued
to slow in October with sales down 0.5% from the
previous month and down 6.1% from October 2024. Sales
in all three segments (custom, semi-custom and stock)
reported year on year declines according to the Kitchen
Cabinet Manufacturers Association's Trend of Business
report.
The 51 responding companies in the survey reported
overall sales of US$190.041 million for October 2025. In
the year on year comparison custom sales were down
2.6% to US$54.168 million, semi-custom sales dropped
6.7% to US$104.727 million and stock sales fell 10.2%, to
US$31.146 million.
Compared with the previous month’s sales survey
respondents reported an increase in custom sales and stock
sales in October, while semi-custom sales declined. Semi-
custom sales fell 2.5%, custom sales rose 0.6%, and stock
sales gained 4.8% in October compared to September
figures. Cabinet quantity dropped 1.6% from September to
October.
As of October 2025 reported sales were US$1.95 billion,
down 6.5% versus last year. Sales volume is under 5.1
million, down 13.2% from last year.
See: https://kcma.org/insights/october-2025-trend-business-
report
US manufacturing - tariff headwinds persist
US manufacturing contracted for the ninth straight month
in November with factories facing slumping orders and
higher prices for inputs as the drag from import tariffs
persisted.
The monthly Institute for Supply Management(ISM)
survey also showed some manufacturers in the
transportation equipment industry linking layoffs to the
import duties with some respondents saying they were
"starting to institute more permanent changes due to the
tariff environment including reduction of staff, new
guidance to shareholders and development of additional
offshore manufacturing."
"The manufacturing sector continues to be weighed down
by the unpredictable tariffs landscape," said Stephen
Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital
Markets. The ISM said its manufacturing PMI dropped to
48.2 last month from 48.7 in October.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction in
manufacturing, which accounts for around 10% of the US
economy.
Of the 18 industries surveyed by ISM only four industries
reported growth. Among the industries that contracted
were Wood Products and Furniture and Related Products.
One Wood Products manufacturer commented that
“domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our
customers still do not have confidence to build inventory
much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind
of ‘planning’ has been undermined by unpredictability.
See: https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-
reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/
and
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-manufacturing-
stuck-in-doldrums-as-tariff-headwinds-persist/ar-
AA1RvkrP?ocid=BingNewsVerp
US wood industry research reports optimism
Market data compiled in the 2025 Wood Industry
Almanac notes that, despite current challenges present
among US wood industries, researchers forecast
improvement in 2026 and beyond. Here are some
highlights from the new Almanac:
Wood and laminate flooring industry: US floor covering
manufacturer sales (domestic factory shipment plus import
minus export) dipped in the first three quarters with
Catalina Research also projecting a drop in the fourth
quarter. Elevated mortgage rates are contributing to the
decline.
Heading into 2026 however, wood flooring manufacturers
are optimistic. NWFA’s 2026 Industry Outlook survey
finds 76% of the manufacturers surveyed project moderate
or better sales growth.
Business Research Insights reports the global wood and
laminate flooring market size, estimated at US$18.37
billion in 2024 is forecast to reach US$22.76 billion by
2033 with a CAGR of 2.4% (2025-2033). Warm neutrals,
lighter wood and earth tones are expected to be top
choices in kitchen flooring over the next three years
according to NKBA/KBIS 2026 Kitchen Design Trends
report. Large format and plank flooring will also be
desired.
See: https://kb.nkba.org/research/nkba-kbis-2026-kitchen-trends-
report/
Architectural woodwork industry: Business conditions
remained soft in September according to the AIA/Deltek
Architecture Billing Index (ABI). September’s ABI
dropped to 43.3, with billings down in all regions except
in the Midwest where they were essentially flat - yet
companies are optimistic.
See: https://www.aia.org/aia-architecture-billings-index
A recent survey by the Architectural Woodwork Institute
saw gains in gross profit and operating profits for all firms
compared to 2024 as noted in the 2025 Cost of Doing
Business Survey.
At the time of the survey slightly more than half (51%)
also said they planned to invest more than US$100,000 in
the next six months, compared to 45% last year.
Wood components and industrial products industry:
When it comes to cabinetry components, the NKBA/KBIS
2026 Kitchen Design Trends study notes wood grains and
painted surfaces, floor to ceiling cabinets and slab doors
will increase in demand over the next three years. A
preference for deeper and lower cabinets with more
drawer storage will also be seen. Two-tone cabinet colours
will retain their popularity, with neutrals, greens and blues
among the dominant kitchen colours. Growth is also
projected for industrial components including pallets and
new crossties.
See: https://kb.nkba.org/research/nkba-kbis-2026-kitchen-trends-
report/
Windows and doors industry: FGIA forecasts show US
demand for residential windows in new construction to
decrease 1% in 2025 then increase 3% in 2026 before
dropping 2% in 2027. Remodeling and replacement
window demand is forecast to shrink 1% in 2025 with
slow growth of 1% to 2% in 2026 and 2027.
Furniture Market Insights projects the global clad wood
awning window market, valued US$220.9 million in 2025,
to reach US$305.7 million by 2035. Growth will come
from increasing residential construction quality standards
and energy efficiency requirements, rising adoption of
premium window systems in home renovation projects and
growing demand for durable exterior cladding solutions in
commercial building applications.
See:https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/architectural-
products/architectural-woodwork-industry-facts-figures
and
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/almanac-market-
data/wood-components-industrial-products-facts-figures
and
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/almanac-market-
data/wood-laminate-flooring-industry-facts-figures
and
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/almanac-market-
data/windows-doors-industry-facts-figures
and
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/wood-industry-almanac
A contribution from Venezuela
Venezuela facing the global timber market
Prof. Álvaro Zambrano Carrera, AlvaroCarrera2@gmail.com
The international timber market is undergoing a period of
restructuring and volatility according to the ITTO Tropical
Timber Market Report. According to the ITTO's
November 2025 report demand has weakened
considerably in key markets such as Europe and China,
traditionally major consumers. In contrast, powerhouses
like Brazil and Vietnam have not only maintained their
competitiveness but have strengthened it registering record
exports and consolidating strategies focused on
sustainability and traceability.
Brazil, for example, exceeded US$18 billion in forestry
sales in 2024 alone while Vietnam ambitiously projects
doubling its exports by the end of the decade (2030),
betting on modernisation and certified product quality.
Simultaneously, the global market is witnessing strong and
surprising demand from India driven by its need for timber
for construction.
The message resonated powerfully during COP30: the
International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO)
underscored the irreplaceable role of tropical forests as
vital carbon sinks for mitigating climate change and as a
source of socioeconomic support for millions of people.
The consensus is unequivocal: in the current and future
market competitive advantage is defined by sustainable
management, rigorous forest certification and the
establishment of integrated and responsible value chains .
Timber is no longer an undifferentiated commodity, its
value is intrinsically linked to trust, traceability of its
origin and the environmental resilience of its production.
While the world adapts to these new realities, Venezuela
presents a divergent picture. After years marked by a deep
economic contraction and inflation that, although
attenuated, exceeded 23% in 2024, the country is unable to
capitalise on the current situation of falling international
timber prices. In November 2025, the price of softwood
lumber stood at US$464 per thousand board feet,
equivalent to approximately US$197cu.m, according to
Madison's. Lumber Prices Index.
This price drop, which could benefit nations with stable
operating costs such as like Colombia, becomes an
additional impediment for Venezuela where the national
productive sector already faces an escalation of logistical
and operational costs, including energy, fuel, industrial
inputs and internal transport.
To effectively reintegrate and gain competitiveness
Venezuela requires a change strategy that addresses three
fundamental pillars:
Macroeconomic Stabilisation and Cost Reduction: It is
crucial to stabilise the national economy to anchor
production, financing and transportation costs, allowing
the forestry sector to operate with viable margins and
competitive international prices.
Certification and Access to Demanding Markets:
Forestry production must transition to international
certification standards (such as PEFC or FSC). This step is
essential to access the most lucrative and demanding
markets, especially Europe and the United States, where
legality and sustainability are a compliance requirement.
Diversification and Added Value: The country must shift
from simply exporting raw materials to diversifying into
products with higher added value. This includes
developing manufacturing industries for furniture, panels,
veneer and other wood products, maximising the
economic return for each unit of timber extracted.
Additionally, it is imperative that the country strengthen
its regional and international integration. Despite the
challenges the country faces Venezuela is a party to the
2006 ITTO Agreement on Tropical Timber having
deposited its instrument of accession on October 10, 2018,
with the Secretary-General of the United Nations.
This ITTO membership can serve as a platform for
accessing cooperation funds, technical assistance and
strategic alliances such as those led by Brazil, which offer
new avenues for sustainable financing and knowledge
transfer.
Venezuela possesses a vast and underutilised forestry
potential. However, this potential will remain dormant if
the country does not align its economic policy,
sustainability practices and sectoral governance with the
rigorous and ever-changing demands of the global market.
Reactivating the Venezuelan timber sector is not only an
economic opportunity but also a sustainable development
imperative that requires a shift from inertia to concerted
action.
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