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Report from
North America
US economic data limited as government shutdown
continues
As the US federal government shutdown continues, most
trade and other economic data reports are not being
produced by government agencies. With many
government functions suspended since 1 October the
shutdown is now the longest in US history. Data will
available when an agreement is reached.
US/China deal mitigates damage from trade war
President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China
reached a trade and economic deal early this month at a
meeting in the Republic of Korea. As a result, after
months of posturing, arguing and threatening, the US and
China have essentially turned back the clock.
Among the details revealed by the White House tree-digit
tariffs are off the table but import duties on each other are
higher than in January. Rare earth materials will flow
more smoothly, but China has put in place an export
permitting regime that it can tighten or loosen as needed.
Port fees will go away, but only for one year and China is
again buying US soybeans.
According to the US Hardwood Federation, China has
committed to resuming purchases of hardwood logs
through the deal but it is unclear if additional purchase
requirements (such as the purchase of hardwood lumber)
are included.
See: https://hardwoodfloorsmag.com/2025/11/04/trade-update-u-
s-china-trade-agreement-fact-sheet/
Inflation accelerated in September, with prices up 3%
The year on year inflation rate heated up to 3.0% in
September, back to where it stood in January. Core CPI,
which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also
increased 3.0% over the year in September.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics was supposed to
publish September's consumer price index report on
October 15, but the release was delayed when the
government shut down on 1 October. The shutdown,
which is now the longest in US history, has affected the
compensation and employment of many federal workers
and some agencies' operations.
BLS said the price of gas was the biggest factor in the
monthly rise. Petrol prices rose 4.1% over the month, way
above the previous 1.9% increase.
See: https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-
consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2025-10
September cabinet sales continue downward trend
US cabinet manufacturers reported overall sales were
down 5.6% for September 2025 compared to the same
month in 2024, with all three segments reporting year-
over-year losses, according to the Kitchen Cabinet
Manufacturers Association's September Trend of Business
report.
The 51 responding companies in the survey reported
overall sales of USUS$190.934 million for September
2025. In the year-over-year comparison, custom sales were
down 5.5% to USUS$53.827 million, semi-custom
dropped 6.7% to USUS$107.391 million and stock sales
fell 1.2%, to USUS$29.716 million. Respondents reported
a cabinet quantity for the month of 492,435, down 8.7%
compared to September 2024 figures.
For the month-over-month sales comparison, survey
respondents reported an increase in custom sales, although
semi-custom and stock sales remained down. Custom sales
rose 5.4%, semi-custom sales fell 0.2%, and stock sales
dropped 10.7% in September compared to August figures.
Cabinet quantity dropped 2.1% during the time period.
For the year-to-date, year-over-year comparison, both
cabinet quantity and sales were down. Participants' sales
through September 2025 were USUS$1.759 billion, down
6.5% from 2024 figures for the same time period. Custom
sales dropped 5.8%, semi-custom sales dipped 4.9% and
stock declined 12.7%. Cabinet quantity for the year to date
also decreased, down 13.4% to 4.6 million.
For the overall cabinet market, estimated sales for the
month of September were USUS$1.825 billion and
estimated sales for the year-to-date were USUS$17.245
billion. Cabinet quantity for the overall market was 4.8
million for the month and 47.9 million January through
September.
The Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association (KCMA)
represents kitchen cabinet and bath vanity manufacturers
and key suppliers of goods and services to the industry.
KCMA has been compiling and reporting industry sales
data for more than 40 years.
See: https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/cabinets/september-
cabinet-sales-continue-downward-trend-kcma-report
Residential furniture orders show August drop
After the rise in orders the previous month, new residential
furniture orders fell 3% in August, compared to the same
period in 2024, according to the October issue of
Furniture Insights. New orders also dropped 3% compared
to the month prior, said Mark Laferriere, assurance partner
at Smith Leonard, the accounting and consulting firm that
produces the monthly report. Approximately one-half of
participants reported increases in August 2025 compared
to a year ago, he said. New residential furniture orders
remain down just 1% for the year so far, compared to last
year.
Due to the ongoing government shutdown, there is no new
information available on September sales at furniture and
home furnishings stores.
The October report by Smith Leonard was made following
the fall High Point Market. "It was again a Market
dominated by discussions of tariffs and the economy as
whole. While opinions of individual exhibitors varied,
conditions for companies working with designers and less
cost-conscious customers were generally favorable,"
Laferriere said. "On the flip side, many companies serving
the lower end of the market were getting opportunities and
at bats with customers they may not have otherwise seen.
Most buyers also seem to understand that tariffs in some
form or fashion are here to stay, and they are ready to
move forward.
"But regardless of what end of the market you’re in, there
was one overriding consensus, and that is that retail is
slow.”
See: https://www.smith-leonard.com/2025/11/04/october-2025-
furniture-insights/
New tariffs on lumber, furniture and cabinets may slow
US housing market
New tariffs on imports of wood and related products,
including lumber, timber, kitchen cabinets and upholstered
furniture, officially took effect on 14 October. The new
tariffs include a 10% tariff on imported timber and lumber
and 25% duties on imported kitchen cabinets, bathroom
vanities and upholstered furniture, with the rate on the
latter categories set to jump next year.
Home builders say this is bad news for both consumers
and the homebuilding industry, which has seen a spike in
prices in recent months. Whether you’re a buyer or a
seller, here’s what you need to know and what impact
these changes could have on the market.
Like other tariffs, these new measures are intended to
expand domestic manufacturing and industry, though the
changes may be slow. “It will take years until domestic
lumber production ramps up to meet the needs of our
citizens,” said the NAHB in a press release.
Data from the Federal Reserve shows not only sharp
increases in furniture costs since 2020, but also a
corresponding rise in their cost of manufacturing. For
consumers, this is more bad news as everyday living costs
become increasingly untenable. There may be benefits for
domestic furniture manufacturers, as increased demand for
domestic goods will fuel production.
The housing market is already in a bind. High interest
rates and low inventory have kept homeowners from
investing in new properties, and sales have been sluggish
over the past few years.
“These new tariffs will create additional headwinds for an
already challenged housing market by further raising
construction and renovation costs,” said NAHB chairman
Buddy Hughes.
However, the US Lumber Coalition, which is firmly pro-
tariff, applauded Trump’s actions and said the NAHB was
peddling “the false narrative that holding Canada to
account for its ever-increasing and egregious unfair trade
practices will somehow exacerbate the problem of US
housing affordability.”
See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/trump-s-new-
tariffs-on-lumber-furniture-and-cabinets-just-went-into-effect-
will-they-slow-down-an-already-sluggish-us-housing-market/ar-
AA1PzUBE?ocid=BingNewsVerp
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