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Report from
Europe
UK tropical timber imports slip in second quarter
A decline in the UK’s tropical timber trade in Q2 2025
contributed to an overall fall in the country’s timber
imports for the first half of the year compared to the same
period in 2024. This is according to latest statistics from
the country’s trade association Timber Development UK
(TDUK).
The overall import figure for the first six months was 4.76
million cu.m. That was down 2.9% on H1 last year. Most
the decline, said TDUK, was ‘driven by weaker demand in
the second quarter of the year. After contracting year on
year by 16,000m3 in Q1, imports shrunk 159,000 cu.m in
Q2.
See https://timberdevelopment.uk/supply/market-data/
Rising risk for UK building output
According to the Summer Forecasts from leading UK
building sector analyst and commentator the Construction
Products Association (CPA), downside risks in the
country’s construction sector have increased.Published at
the end of July, the Summer Forecasts predict growth in
the sector’s total output of 1.9% this year, and 3.7% in
2026.
This is similar to the level the CPA predicted in its Spring
Forecasts. The growth will be led by the three principal
sectors in UK construction; private housing new build,
private housing repair, maintenance and improvement
(RMI) and infrastructure. However, risks to growth have
become more apparent, with the government facing an
increased challenge to meet a shortfall between what it
needs to spend to maintain public services and its expected
tax revenues.
Consequently, taxes are widely expected to increase in the
government’s autumn budget, potentially in conjunction
with cost-cutting measures. The NIESR said that a rise of
5 pence in the pound would be needed to plug the budget
gap, without recourse to public spending cuts.
The CPA said that the three main elements of the
construction sector are consequently vulnerable to delays
in starting new projects and a decline in homeowner and
consumer confidence to spend.
The strongest component of the construction industry
currently is private housing. Here, says the CPA, output is
forecast to rise 4% in 2025 and 7% in 2026. It reports that
the major housebuilders continue for the time being to see
a gradual recovery in completions, albeit from a low base.
Overall private housing completions are predicted to climb
7% to 144,000 this year, to rise 6% in 2026 and a further
5% in 2027.
Smaller housebuilders report improving demand too, but
also constraints in the form of rising costs, including those
imposed by government.
In the build to rent and high-rise building sector project
completions are being held up by long delays in
processing projects by the Building Safety Regulator,
which was established following the Grenfell tower
disaster, a major fatal tower block fire in 2017.
According to the CPA, another factor is UK construction
wage inflation, which in the year to April was 5.1%. This
is underpinned by continuing shortage of labour. In Q1
2025 UK construction employed 2.14 million workers,
over 270,000 workers than in 2019. The government’s
response is to invest £625 million to train up 60,000 more
skilled employees.
CPA Head of Construction Research, Rebecca Larkin,
concluded that ‘everything continues to point towards the
gradual growth in construction activity gathering pace
over the rest of this year and in 2026’ . However, levels of
uncertainty in the economy have increased, with tax rises
and government spending cuts threatening to put the
brakes on the sector. Private housing new build, RMI and
public construction expenditure could all be impacted, she
said.
See https://www.constructionproducts.org.uk/news-media-
events/news/2025/july/cpa-releases-summer-forecasts-2025/
and
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/06/tax-rises-
budget-deficit-rachel-reeves-niesr
European construction may have peaked, says
Euroconstruct
With Europe’s population shrinking its construction
market may have peaked, according to a briefing from
construction market forecasting network Euroconstruct.
In recent years, says the report, there has been a sharp
decline in new building construction across Europe, with
both residential and non-residential construction
performing weakly.
“Short-term forecasts from the Euroconstruct network
suggest that an improvement is expected starting this year,
with a gradual recovery in new building construction from
this low level over the next few years,” it says. “
Reconstruction in Ukraine may for a time counter the
downturn in European building as a whole but, says the
briefing, will comprise largely replacement of destroyed
buildings not an increase in overall building stock.
It also says that construction investment will be
increasingly focused on adaptation of existing buildings to
climate change and transition to renewable energy.
“Existing buildings will also need to be used longer than
today due to goals of a more circular economy and given
the high emissions and waste associated with both new
construction and demolition,” says the briefing.
“Therefore, renovation and remodelling should increase
going forward at the expense of new construction, both to
adapt the building stock to changing needs and to meet
higher requirements for energy efficiency and resilience to
extreme weather.”
Demographic changes will also reduce demand for new
construction, it says. A declining population, combined
with significant ageing, will mean less additional floor
space is needed.
Demand for new office space is also expected to decline
due to productivity gains from accelerated use of artificial
intelligence in office professions, while retail building
requirements will contract as e-commerce continues to
gradually replace physical stores. Healthcare and social
buildings may be the only building types that require
expansion, the briefing concludes.
See
https://www.euroconstruct.org/news/long-term-forecasts-
indicate-that-new-building-construction-in-europe-may-
have-peaked-already/
and
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-
explained/index.php?title=Population_projections_in_the_
EU
European wildfires hit nearly 1 million ha.
Forests across Europe have been hit by some of the most
extensive wildfires recorded, with the total area of the
continent hit from January to September approaching 1
million ha.
According to latest data from the European Forest Fires
Information system on 9 September, the wildfire affected
area in the period was 994,363 ha. That compared with
238,574 ha in the same eight months in 2024.
A key contributory factor in the severity of outbreaks, says
the European Commission, has been exceptionally dry and
hot weather, with the Copernicus Climate Service
reporting that Europe has experienced its warmest summer
on record. The heatwave affected the continent as a whole,
from the Iberian to the Fennoscandinavian peninsulas.
Spain and Portugal were particularly badly affected, with
500,000 ha of land burnt by mid-August. Cyprus,
Germany, and Slovakia also reached their highest value of
burnt areas ever recorded by mid-August.
The EU Civil Protection Association, which coordinates
pan-European assistance, was activated 18 times to deal
with fire outbreaks from January to September.
To enhance its capabilities, the EC is investing in further
firefighting planes and helicopters to be situated across the
continent.
See https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/projects-and-
activities/natural-and-man-made-hazards/fires/current-wildfire-
situation-europe_en
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