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Report from
Europe
EU tropical wood imports at historic low in 2024
In 2024, the EU27 imported 1.46 million tonnes of tropical
wood and wood furniture products with a total value of
US$3.09 billion, respectively 8% and 3% less than the
previous year.
In quantity terms, this is the lowest level of imports of
these products ever recorded since the EU was first formed
(as the EEC) in 1957. It is also 19% below the average for
the pre-pandemic 2013-2019 period when imports were
static at a historically low level.
EU27 import value of tropical wood and wood furniture
products last year was only slightly above the annual
average of US$3.06 billion during the 2013-2019 period.
When account is taken of inflation, import value last year
was more than 15% below the pre-pandemic level (Chart
1).
Nominal unit prices (not adjusted for inflation) for tropical
wood and wood furniture imported into the EU increased
again in 2024 after falling the previous year from record
levels achieved during the pandemic.
The average price per tonne of all EU27 tropical wood and
wood furniture imports fell from a record high of
US$2250 per tonne in 2022 to US$2005 per tonne in 2023,
before rebounding to US$2116 per tonne last year. This
was partly owing to inflation and partly to a shift in the
tropical wood product groups imported into the EU last
year with relatively higher value finished furniture and
joinery products performing better than sawnwood,
mouldings and logs.
Quarterly data provides some slight grounds for optimism
that the market may have hit bottom at the end of last year.
Total EU27 imports of tropical wood and wood furniture
of 391,200 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2024 were up
9% compared to the previous quarter and up 13%
compared to the same quarter in 2023. Nevertheless,
import tonnage during the last quarter of 2024 still fell
below quarterly trade figures typical during the pre-
pandemic 2013-2019 period (Chart 2a above).
The trade figures look healthier when considered in value
terms. EU27 import value of tropical wood and wood
furniture in the fourth quarter of 2024 was US$800
million, 5% more than the previous quarter and 18% up on
the same quarter in 2023. In value terms, imports during
the last quarter of 2024 were more closely aligned with
those of the pre-pandemic 2013-2019 period (Chart 2b).
European economy stagnates, says the Economist
A recent article in the Economist under the heading
“Europe has no escape from stagnation”, suggests that
even optimistic growth forecasts for the region in 2025
“barely go beyond 1%” and asks the question “where is
growth supposed to come from?”. The short answer is not
particularly encouraging:
“Europe’s ageing population is not as innovative as it once
was, dampening productivity. The global economy will no
longer support Europe’s export-led approach. Investment
requires confidence in the future. Consumers are fearful,
with many choosing to keep money in the bank. The ECB
remains busy fighting inflation and governments are
avoiding difficult reforms for fear of a populist backlash.”
The Economist goes on to elaborate on a few of these
points and, in doing so, finds just a few crumbs of
comfort. It is noted, for instance, that as inflation subsides,
the European Central Bank (ECB) can return to
stimulating the economy with lower interest rates.
ECB policymakers have already cut their main rate from
4% in June last year to 2.75% and markets expect rates to
fall to 2% by the year’s end. But the Economist is
pessimistic that there will be scope to reduce interest rates
so drastically as inflation is still quite high, at 2.5% a year.
Similarly, the Economist points to a robust rise in
European pay packets, which should boost consumer
spending. However, such spending is still hampered by
low consumer confidence. The euro-zone household
savings rate, which before the covid-19 pandemic was
typically around 12%, is now above 15%. Consumer
sentiment has recently dropped again, to below its long-
term average. There are still a lot of nervous consumers
around.
At the same time, opportunities for European
manufacturers to boost growth by expanding sales
overseas are now tightly constrained by intense
competition from China which, according to the
Economist, is “hellbent on exporting its manufacturing
surplus to the world, rather than buying more from
Europe”. Meanwhile, the new US administration is intent
on reducing its trade deficit and threatening to impose
swingeing tariffs on its major trade partners. This in turn
could push more goods from China and elsewhere into
Europe, while restricting European exports to the US.
The EU is trying to counter these tendencies with renewed
efforts to formalise free trade agreements, notably with the
Mercosur group of countries, India, Malaysia, Indonesia
and the Philippines.
Another potential boost to European economic growth,
according to the Economist, could yet come from greater
government spending, although only in a few countries.
The greatest potential may be in Germany, where there is a
need for greater public investment and funds available
which the next government could make use of after the
forthcoming election. Elsewhere opportunities for public
investment are limited. Italy must cut spending to stabilise
its debt, while France must do so to bring down an outsize
deficit.
The Economist notes that European leaders now pin much
hope on supply-side reforms, to simplify regulation,
remove single-market barriers and knit together capital
markets.
Far-reaching proposals for such reforms were set out in a
report by Mario Draghi, a former president of the ECB,
published in September last year. But it remains to be seen
just how far and fast European leaders will be able to
implement these proposals.
No end to decline in Eurozone construction activity,
on-going now for 33 months
Weakness of the EU construction sector continues to be a
particularly significant drag on EU demand for all timber
products. Forward-looking indices suggest that EU
construction activity will continue to decline.
The HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI Total Activity
Index, a seasonally adjusted index tracking monthly
changes in total industry activity, posted 42.9 in December
and 45.4 in January, both well below the boundary line (at
50) separating growth from contraction. The latest
downturn extends the current sequence of falling activity
to 33 months.
The only good news is that the decline in January 2025
was the softest since February 2023.
According to HCOB, the negative trends reflected further
declines in Germany and France. Italian firms saw activity
rise for the second successive month, though the rate of
growth was only marginal.
Lower output was broad-based in nature across the three
monitored sectors covered by the report. Housing activity
saw the most pronounced decrease, though falls in
commercial and civil engineering activity were also
relatively sharp.
See: https://www.hcob-bank.com/en/insights/pmi/
Recovery in EU27 tropical wood furniture imports in
2024
The EU27 imported 285,500 tonnes of wood furniture
from tropical countries with a total value of US$1193
million in 2024.
Import quantity and import value were up 7% and 6%
respectively during the year. In 2024, EU27 import value
of wood furniture increased from Vietnam (+9% to
US$484.9 million), India (+16% to US$264.5 million),
Malaysia (+19% to US$94 million), and the Philippines
(+3% to US$8.3 million).
However, import value fell from Indonesia (-6% to
US$315.5 million), Thailand (-25% to US$14.4 million),
and Mexico (-15% to US$3.9 million).
EU27 wood furniture imports from all other tropical
countries were negligible during the year (Chart 3, left).
EU27 imports of tropical sawnwood decline 14% to
lowest level ever in 2024
The EU27 imported 726,900 cu.m of tropical sawnwood
in 2024, 14% less than the previous year and the lowest
level ever recorded. This is only the second time in history
that EU imports of tropical sawnwood have fallen below
800,000 cu.m (the only other was in the first year of the
pandemic in 2020 when imports were 784,000 cu.m).
Import value of this commodity was US$680.8 million in
2024, 13% less than the previous year.
Tropical sawnwood imports declined from nearly all
leading supply countries during the year including
Cameroon (-16% to 276,800 cu.m), Gabon (-18% to
106,300 cu.m), Brazil (-7% to 91,200 cu.m), Republic of
Congo (-21% to 73,800 cu.m), Malaysia (-7% to 64,100
cu.m), Ghana (-16% to 17,200 cu.m), Côte d’Ivoire (-34%
to 9,300 cu.m), the Democratic Republic of Congo (-42%
to 7,600 cu.m), Suriname (-20% to 7,200 cu.m), Indonesia
(-4% to 6,300 cu.m), and the Central African Republic (-
56% to 5,600 cu.m).
Sawnwood imports from Ecuador bucked the overall
downward trend during the year, at 16,000 cu.m, up 25%
compared to 2023. Imports from Vietnam also increased,
by 53% to 6,600 cu.m (Chart 4).
The EU27 imported 131,300 tonnes of tropical
mouldings/decking in 2024, 3% less than in the previous
year and another record low. Import value of this
commodity was down 10% to US$232.3 million during
the year.
The decline was driven by a fall in imports from Brazil (-
9% to 43,900 tonnes) and Gabon (-21% to 8,300 tonnes).
Imports increased during the year from Indonesia (+10%
to 45,000 tonnes), Peru (+16% to 11,900 tonnes),
Malaysia (+3% to 6,500 tonnes), and Bolivia (+4% to
5,900 tonnes) (Chart 5).
The EU27 imported 37,000 cu.m of tropical logs with a
total value of US$21.9 million in 2024, respectively 60%
and 62% less than in the previous year. The decline was
driven mainly by policy measures in Central Africa to
curtail log exports in the last two years.
In 2024, EU27 imports of logs were down from the
Central African Republic (-34% to 10,500 cu.m), the
Democratic Republic of Congo (-39% to 6,200 cu.m),
Cameroon (-40% to 5,800 cu.m), and the Republic of
Congo (-90% to 4,600 cu.m).
Imports also fell from Guyana (-30% to 1,500 cu.m), but
there was an increase from Paraguay (+132% to 3,700
cu.m) and Brazil (+43% to 900 cu.m) (Chart 6, left).
Patchy performance for tropical veneer, plywood and
joinery in the EU last year
The EU27 imported 250,700 cu.m of tropical veneer with
a total value of US$171.2 million in 2024, both down 5%
compared to the previous year.
Imports of tropical veneer from Gabon, by far the largest
supplier of this commodity to the EU27, were 136,000
cu.m in 2024, 2% more than in the previous year.
Tropical veneer imports also increased last year from the
Republic of Congo (+12% to 11,500 cu.m), the UK (+45%
to 8,600 cu.m), and Ghana (+16% to 7,000 cu.m).
However, these gains were offset by falling imports from
Côte d'Ivoire (-6% to 52,300 cu.m), Cameroon (-22% to
28,200 cu.m), Indonesia (-5% to 3,200 cu.m), and
Equatorial Guinea (-81% to 900 cu.m) (Chart 7).
The EU27 imported 283,200 cu.m of tropical plywood
with a total value of US$205.7 million in 2024, both up
6% compared to 2023. Imports fell 10% to 78,600 cu.m
from Indonesia, which nevertheless remained the leading
supplier of tropical plywood to the EU last year.
Imports from Brazil were also down, by 3% to 15,000
cu.m, while indirect imports via the UK fell 31% to 7,000
cu.m. However, these losses were offset last year by rising
imports from Gabon (+4% to 64,800 cu.m), China (+5% to
34,500 cu.m), Vietnam (+93% to 27,600 cu.m), Morocco
(+29% to 19,300 cu.m), Paraguay (+110% to 9,800 cu.m),
Ghana (+84% to 8,100 cu.m), and Malaysia (+39% to
6,400 cu.m) (Chart 8).
The EU27 imported 18,400 tonnes of tropical wood
flooring with a total value of US$48.4 million in 2024,
down 8% and 16% respectively compared to the previous
year.
Imports of 8,500 tonnes from Malaysia were 16% less
than in 2023. Flooring imports also fell from Indonesia (-
23% to 3,600 tonnes) and Brazil (-45% to 500 tonnes).
However, flooring imports increased sharply from
Vietnam in 2024 (+65% to 4,500 tonnes) (Chart 9).
The value of EU27 imports of other joinery products from
tropical countries - which mainly comprise laminated
window scantlings, kitchen tops and wood doors – was
US$213.5 million in 2024, 8% more than the previous
year.
Import quantity was up 14% to 91,600 tonnes during the
year. Import value increased 19% to US$87.9 million from
Indonesia and was up 40% to US$18.8 million from
Vietnam.
Imports from China, which fell sharply in 2023, recovered
some lost ground in 2024, rising 8% to US$3.4 million.
Starting from a small base, EU import value of laminated
joinery products also continued to increase from Central
African countries last year, including from the Republic of
Congo (+28% to US$14.2 million) and Cameroon (+69%
to US$4.6 million).
However last year imports of joinery products fell 9% to
US$61.8 million from Malaysia. Indirect imports from the
UK also fell, by 7% to US$5.2 million. (Chart 10).
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