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Report
from
North America
US Import trends
US year-to-October 2012 imports were 6% above the
previous year. China¡¯s share in total imports year-todate
remained at around 66%, Year-to-October imports
from Indonesia soared by 29%, compared to a 5%
growth in imports from China.
Softwood plywood
US imports of softwood plywood were down 16%
from 2011 on a year-to-date basis. Chile remains the
top supplier, but imports from Chile continue to
decline. China¡¯s share of US imports increased from
just 3% in 2011 to 12% in 2012, on a year-to-date
basis.
Mouldings
Total US 2012 moulding imports (year-to-October)
declined by 8% compared to levels in 2011. Much of
the decline was in Brazilian shipments, but imports
from China were also down. Softwood moulding
imports as of October 2012 were up by 12% from
2011. Softwood moulding imports from China
increased by 27% on a year-to-date basis.
Flooring
US year-to-October imports of assembled hardwood
flooring panel increased by 10% from the previous
year. China¡¯s share of imports was around 68%, down
slightly from levels in 2011. Canada and Brazil
increased their share of US imports.
Hardwood flooring imports are less than a third of
assembled flooring panel imports, but they grew by
57% year-to-date from 2011. The main beneficiaries of
the growth in US imports were Indonesia and
Malaysia.
Doors
While US wooden door imports declined in October
2012 overall the level of imports was still 5% above
levels in 2011. Most major suppliers to the US market
increased their shipments compared to 2011, but door
imports from China had dropped by 5% up to October
2012.
Furniture
Year-to-October US imports of wooden furniture were
up 9% compared to 2011. China was a major supplier
and China¡¯s share of total US imports grew by 9%
year-on year.
China¡¯s share in total US furniture imports year-on
year was 49%, slightly up from levels in 2011
Vietnam¡¯s share of US imports year on year from 13%
in 2011 to 15% in 2012. India, Mexico and Malaysia
also substantially increased furniture shipments to the
US.
Release of US plywood dumping investigation
postponed
The US Department of Commerce has postponed the
release of preliminary countervailing duty from its
probe into plywood imports from China. The
countervailing duty results would demonstrate the
value of subsidies by China¡¯s government for plywood
producers in China.
The preliminary results were scheduled for release in
December, but the Department postponed the release to
26 February 2013 at the request of US producers.
The US began investigating antidumping and
countervailing duties on imports of plywood from
China in November 2012. The release of the
preliminary antidumping duty (in addition to the
countervailing duty) is still expected for 6 March,
2013.
A group of American hardwood plywood
manufacturers, the Coalition for Fair Trade of
Hardwood Plywood, initiated the investigation, while
another industry group, American Alliance for
Hardwood Plywood, and the International Wood
Products Association oppose the introduction of duties
on plywood from China.
Housing market forecast to recover
Demand for windows and doors are forecast to grow
significantly over the next four years, according to
information in two recently published market research
reports.
The steep decline in housing starts between 2007 and
2010 resulted in a decline in demand for windows and
doors. Most US door and window manufacturers
(millwork companies) are small to medium-sized and
between 2007 and 2012 the number of millwork
companies in the US because of the collapse in demand
from house builders.
Over the next five years new housing construction in
the US is expected to recover and demand for windows
and doors will improve. Demand from the home repair
and remodelling sector is also expected to grow, but at
a slower pace.
The US government offered tax credits to home owners
between 2009 and 2011 for installing energy efficient
windows and doors but this scheme has ended which
will further affect demand.
Growth in door and window market
US demand for wood windows and doors is forecast to
grow by an average of 10% annually until 2016 and
will be worth around US$10 billion in 2016.
The market share of wood in total window and door
demand is forecast to be stable at around 30%. Plastic
windows and doors are expected to continue taking
market share from wood and metal because of their
low cost.
Residential construction
Construction of new homes in the US fell 3% in
November 2012 driving the seasonally adjusted annual
rate to 861,000. Analysts are forecasting that the
annual 2012 starts will come in at 865,000.
The US housing starts rate for October was revised
down to 888,000 from an estimated 894,000.
Despite the decline in November, US housing starts
expanded more than 20% over the past 12 months but
the rate of new home building is far below the peak of
nearly 2.3 million in 2006.
The US housing market continues to recover but
discussions in the US Congress about reducing the
popular tax deduction on mortgage interest may reduce
demand for homes.
It seems unlikely, however, that the tax deduction
would be completely eliminated. President Obama has
suggested a limit on deductions by high-income
earners. It is possible that such changes could reduce
the price of homes, especially when renting is an
attractive alternative to owning a home.
Housing starts increased by 3.6% in October to a
provisional 894,000 units, at a seasonally adjusted
annual rate. Single-family starts remained the same
from October at 594,000, while multi-family housing
starts increased by almost 12% to 300,000 units.
Building permits for new homes fell in October to
866,000 units (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The
decline was in multi-family housing permits, while
permits for single-family home construction increased.
The number of permits issued is an indicator of future
building activity.
Decline in 2013 Canadian housing starts expected
In Canada, housing starts declined further to 204,107 in
October, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The
Canada Housing and Mortgage Corporation expects a
slight decrease in housing starts for 2013.
In 2012, the growth in housing starts was driven by
multi-family home starts, while single-family home
construction was stable. Multi-family construction is
expected to decline in 2013, which will moderate the
total number of starts. Canadian sales of existing
homes slightly declined to an estimated 457,400 in
2012, but they are forecast to rise again in 2013, to
461,500.
US Consumer confidence falls in December
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan US
consumer sentiment index was 30% higher in
November 2012 than in the same month in 2011.
However, the US consumer confidence index fell
almost seven points in December 2012 because of
uncertainty over prolonged negotiations in the US
aimed at avoiding the fiscal cliff.
The US Conference Board, which conducts the
consumer survey, reported that the consumer
confidence index dropped to 65 in December 2012
from close to 72 in November of the same year,
(1985=100).
Consumers' optimism seem in November was short
lived. The proportion of consumers expecting an
improvement in business conditions over the next six
months fell three points, those consumers expecting
conditions to worsen increased by six points
* The market information above has been generously
provided by the Chinese Forest Products Index Mechanism
(FPI)
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